(November 20, 2001 draft—John Davies)
Given the rapid developments in this field, it is not possible to provide a complete or authoritative listing of projects and resources relevant to conflict vulnerability assessment and early or preventive response. We have identified a number of significant or potentially significant open-access projects (including some locally based projects with English language websites), but new projects are constantly created, and existing projects are changed or completed. This review of global and Africa-focused sources is intended as a point of entry, to be expanded, corrected and updated over time (* indicates particularly useful sites). Several projects listed here provide further linkages via the Web to other related sites.
Projects are listed in broad
categories relevant to the seven steps laid out in this manual for developing
conflict vulnerability assessments. The categories overlap; and projects
included under one category may also be relevant to other categories and steps.
Internet addresses are given when available, or if not, alternative contact
information is given:
I. Resources for identifying
potentially vulnerable groups, current conflict status and sources of conflict,
including: (A) Information on countries, groups and current crises (step
1); (B) Monitoring systems for armed conflicts and for human rights
violations (step 2); and (C) Risk assessment and early warning systems
(public sector, private sector model-based and private sector
interpretive)(step 3).
II. Resources for identifying
coping capacity, including: (A) Management capacity; and (B) Population
sectors at risk (step 4. Step 5 draws on all the above.)
III. Resources for identifying
potential responses (step 6. Step 7 draws on all the above.)
Public affairs “call-in” television program broadcast throughout the African continent. Each week top news makers, experts and interested viewers discuss the critical issues and events shaping Africa’s political, economic and social landscape.
Excellent links for searching web resources on democracy and human rights, and regional pages with comprehensive links to country-specific sites.
Over 2000 links sorted by country, subject and news, created by the Norwegian Council for Africa. It includes “Africa Update” with daily news briefing from African news sources.
Greatest volume of up-to-date news on the continent.
Annually updated country information covering geography, people, economy, government, infrastructure and map.
Extensive number of working papers on-line on a wide array of conflict issues, and comprehensive gateway to relevant organizations in the US and abroad.
Joint initiative with Third World Network to share information on potential and actual conflicts, among organizations working in Africa to aid conflict prevention and peace building. Briefings, news reports and related papers on current conflicts in Africa draw on IPS, NGOs and other civil society sources. Current issues are available on-line; past issues need subscription.
Provides links to wide range of IOs and NGOs providing information and services on current conflicts, conflict prevention, refugees, arms control, peace initiatives, country profiles, maps, and other conflict related data listed by country (from the Canadian Development Agency).
Lists member states and decribes ECOWAS projects and institutions.
Provides maps for any area of the world.
INCORE’s Conflict Data Service provides country reports and an ethnic conflict digest on areas of major conflict globally, as well as information on relevant peace agreements, recent research, training resources and organizations. The Policy and Evaluation Unit also provides resources for policy makers regarding options for managing conflict.
Internet-based system to provide information on emergency situations in Africa and Central Asia from diverse sources-`, including daily updates and weekly roundups, extra reports, maps, graphics, and policy recommendations.
Detailed profiles of 275 minority groups considered politically significant (based on relative size and risk levels), along with chronologies (1990–2000, updated periodically). See also below for risk assessments and detailed indicator data.
Profiles minority groups globally, monitors good and bad practices toward minorities, aids in capacity building including in Horn and Great Lakes—published directory, special reports and newsletter.
Partnership of over 250 organizations working for human rights and sustainable development. Useful site for information and addresses on specific NGOs.
Internet-based information management system on current complex emergencies, including broad array of country background profiles, maps, and current situational and analytical information from IOs, NGOs, governments, universities and news sources. Aims to support humanitarian relief operations directly and through raising public awareness.
Maps, databases and images of countries and regions of the world.
“Africa In Depth” page provides special reports, many based on USIP fact finding missions. Annotated regional and country specific web links by topic including government agencies, international organizations, maps and guides, media and news sources, peace agreements and political resources.
Comprehensive academic site on Africa and African Studies, with background information and links by country, with additional reports for East Africa.
Country profiles of most states in East and Central Africa. Gives access to other sources and websites for current events and situation reports; politics and society; population, health and nutrition; food, agriculture and markets; infrastructure and logistics; and vulnerability and preparedness.
The monthly Conflict Trends magazine provides overviews of current conflicts, trends which may give rise to conflicts, and conflict management/development initiatives. Conflict Watch is an on-line condensed statistical overview of major and emerging conflicts in Africa; the Renaissance Barometer focuses on positive developments and achievements in Africa. Also a good source for identifying conflict management capabilities in the continent.
Updates on conflicts from secondary sources in Africa including Angola, Burundi, Congo Brazzaville, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Eritrea, Liberia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Sudan and Uganda.
A network of African social scientists for comparative studies, monitoring and evaluation of ethnic conflicts and social transformation in Africa. A database on ethnic conflicts including analyses and updates of datacollected by National Monitoring Units in Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Nigeria, Togo, Uganda, and Zambia.
FIRST is a joint project of the International Relations and Security Network (ISN), SIPRI and other institutes, providing an integrated on-line database from several research institutes on armed conflicts and peace keeping, arms production and trade, military expenditure, armed forces and weapons holdings; indicators of development, political and economic stability, IDPs, human security, human rights, environment, diversity, political violence and terrorism, along with maps, chronologies and other data helpful for conflict vulnerability analysis.
Annual “Conflict Barometer” describes recent trends in political conflicts globally (since 1990), including crises, escalations, negotiations and settlements, and gives a prognosis for short- and medium-term trends. Provides access to the KOSIMO database of 693 political conflicts from 1945 to 1999, each coded on 28 variables.
Annual global inventory of all armed conflicts, including issues, actors, civilian and military casualties, refugees, human rights violations—limited access database with annual publication of PIOOM’s World Conflict and Human Rights Map. Also provides “checklists” for monitoring and generating country profiles on tensions, conflict escalation and recovery.
Small arms flows in the Horn of Africa region are monitored by a network of indigenous organizations in the context of building local capacities for peace.
Annual global inventory of major armed conflicts, including issues, actors, and military casualties. SIPRI yearbooks also include information on conflict management initiatives, on production and transfer of weapons and military technology, including chemical and biological weapons and overall military expenditure, and on arms limitations, reductions and disarmament. (See also FIRST.)
The Center, a joint effort of Makerere University and the University of Minnesota, provides a gateway website on human rights in Africa, including human rights resources and a listing of relevant African NGOs.
Weekly newsletter on current and potential human rights violations in Southern Africa and other special reports. Facilitates cooperation among African NGOs.
Field reports/assessments and annual country reports on individual and collective human rights violations. Offers recommendations on how to prevent violations and put pressure on governments. Comprehensive links to other human rights resources.
Monthly newsletter tracks human rights violations in Angola and any related international responses.
Publishes reports bringing to light human rights violations against different social groups in Botswana, aims to raise public awareness.
Internet-based global information-sharing system for NGOs concerned with human rights. Includes reports on current human rights issues and crises.
Periodic country reports and annual world report on individual and collective human rights and humanitarian law violations. Its Arms Project investigates the link between the arms trade and human rights abuses and analyzes weapons systems (e.g., landmines) under humanitarian law. Based on field reports/assessments.
Irregular reports on specific human rights violations, based on standard format field reports.
Publishes research reports on major human rights and legal issues in Tanzania.
Monitors human rights violations, corruption, ethnic/minority tensions, mercenary activities small arms flows etc. in Namibia, with annual and special reports based on field research and analysis.
Annual country reports on overall human rights status—based on field reports/assessments.
Monthly newsletter and quarterly bulletin covering human rights injustices and underlying causes in Zimbabwe, based on research by local committees.
The CPC provides support for OSCE negotiating and decision-making bodies in the areas of early warning, conflict prevention, crisis management, and post-conflict rehabilitation. Its Operations Centre identifies potential crisis areas and plans for future missions and operations. Primary focus on the former USSR and Yugoslavia. Access limited to internal agencies and member states. On-line reports on prevention initiatives available.
Current vulnerability assessments of potential food emergencies for 17 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, based on in-country reports by networked field representatives taking into account harvest, internal factors (economic, social, demographic, health, environment), external hazards (conflict, natural disasters, price shifts etc.) and coping capacity. Used as basis for crisis prevention planning and related development work strengthening host country capacity. Regular country, regional and topical reports available on-line, along with data on prices, natural disasters, weather imaging etc.
Global monitoring of food demand and supply for all basic foods, and early warning alerts of imminent food crises, drawing information from governments, news sources, NGOs and in-country assessments by FAO field representatives. Monthly, bimonthly, quarterly and ad hoc reports.
The Genoa Project is a vehicle for systematic integration of expert knowledge among US intelligence agencies to develop early pre-crisis understanding and mitigation. Access limited to USG agencies.
Database of background conditions for most countries, with more intensive monitoring of accelerating factors for countries identified as vulnerable to humanitarian crises, drawing quantitative and qualitative information from UN field offices and agencies and other sources. Used to support interpretive analyses and reports for decision makers in UN operational agencies—access limited to relevant UN agencies and member states.
The mechanism has only limited capacity to collect and analyze information needed for early warning and prevention in Africa, drawing on data on demographic trends, economic performance, and social development indicators. Planned expansion will allow coordinated information sharing with IOs and NGOs in Africa. Limited access.
Empirically derived indicators of state failures (including revolutionary or ethnic war, regime collapse, genocide). Structural models about 70% accurate in predicting new failures five years in advance; dynamic models about 78% accurate six months in advance. Genocide early warning project derived from the State Failure Project is currently real-time. Limited access for USG agencies. Retrospective data and papers available via web site.
Provides key documents on UN policy on early warning and prevention, policy planning steps toward UN preventive action, a typology and survey of preventive measures, a training manual for UN staff, and a range of links to relevant web sites.
Provides open access to extensive environmental data and is developing global risk/vulnerability assessments, including Africa and other areas, providing indices of potential impact, covering environmental risks such as surface and groundwater problems, insect infestations, non-sustainable farming or fishing practices, climate change, drought, earthquakes, floods, and other geophysical or manmade disasters. The web site also provides risk maps and links to related information sources and risk assessments.
PovertyNet provides data and analysis on trends for conflict/crisis indicators such as poverty, inequality, health, education, girls’ education, and guidelines on good practice in responding to and managing crises. The Bank’s Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Team (the second web site above) provides resources including a model specifying factors for assessing risk of conflict and guidelines for managing conflict, promoting transitions to peace, and reconstruction.
Provides model-based risk assessments and country rankings and reports, along with data on indicators of human security, terrorism, human rights, diversity, environment, government stability, heterogeneity, relations with neighbors, regional balance of power and other economic, political, social and cultural variables. Several of these are also included in the FIRST project at SIPRI (above).
SPF’s conflict early warning system (FAST) incorporates model-based risk assessments in combination with indicator measurement, events monitoring and qualitative analysis from field reports and a network of local experts. Annual country risk profiles on African and Central and South Asian cases. Collaborates with FEWER.
A global network of NGOs, research institutions, UN/IO agencies and governments for information exchange and partnership for early warning and prevention of violent conflicts. Regionally based networks with international support are operational in the Caucasus, Central Asia, South East Asia, African Great Lakes and West African regions, with a new network being planned for Latin America. Regular early warning reports, including future scenarios and recommendations for preventive action, accessible via Internet, along with guidelines for developing reports, including risk factors and response tool-box. Provides links to several partner organizations engaged in related work.
Model-based risk assessments of potential refugee flows or forced migrations from/in 200 countries/territories based on environment, economic development, security, and human rights indicators. Irregular publication (beginning with Asian countries), available via internet.
Generates conflict early warning reports for the Great Lakes region in collaboration with FEWER, as well as reports on arms transfers in the region. Promotes cooperative responses through peacebuilding networks.
Model-based risk assessments of potential ethnopolitical conflicts, supported by profiles of 275 minority groups considered politically significant (based on relative size and risk levels). Assessments published periodically, latest set accessible in “Peace and Conflict 2001” report on-line or on request. Five-year risk assessments show 70% success rate in predicting outbreak of ethnic war. Profiles, chronologies (1990–2000, updated periodically), manual and very detailed indicator data (zipped) available via Internet.
FFP has developed a Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) which uses economic, social and political indicators to assess risk of state crisis or collapse and to track trends during conflict and recovery.
WANEP’s Early Warning and Early Response Program is being developed for monitoring, analysis and reporting on indicators of violent conflict in West Africa, in order to mobilize stakeholders for early response. Collaborates with FEWER.
ACCORD is developing ACCNET, an early warning system for Africa utilizing primary (fieldworkers) and secondary data sources from the region to increase awareness of current and potential conflict situations. The monthly Conflict Trends magazine provides overviews of current conflicts and conflict management/development initiatives.
Primary data from multiple sources is tested against knowledge of field researchers and used for a largely interpretive assessment of likely threats to human security, to be used in support of potential initiatives for prevention or resolution. Reports soon to be available.
Sends expert teams to make in-country interpretive analyses based on interviewing as basis for conflict early warnings, and advocates appropriate early preventive actions. Limited to African Great Lakes, Nigeria, Central Asia (Ferghana Valley) and Balkans. Preventive Action Reports and regional case studies published and on Internet.
CRN, linked with the International Relations and Security Network (ISN) based at ETH in Zurich, will provide risk profiles for countries and locations, including political, environmental, terrorism, migration, technological and natural disaster risks.
Annual “Conflict Barometer” describes recent trends in political conflicts globally, including crises, escalations, negotiations and settlements, and gives a prognosis for short- and medium-term trends.
ICG’s CrisisWeb reports and briefings provide expert analyses and ideas to head off impending crises, drawing on in-country field assessments by political analysts, and networking with governments to promote preventive action.
In-country emergency assessments of refugee flows for selected countries, used for refugee advocacy and support globally. Early warning bulletins available via Internet.
The Conflict Prevention Programme provides analysis and recommendations for preventive actions by the EU and others, particularly for IGAD/Greater Horn countries, including security sector reforms and other preventive strategies (in partnership with FEWER and International Alert). Regular newsletter on the Horn region; evaluation of ongoing projects.
Official website explains the Bank’s vision for Africa, current projects (listed by country) and the types of development initiatives supported.
Provides access to most official African government websites. Very useful for information on African governments, political parties, economies and foreign representation.
Dutch gateway website for accessing resources by country or by subject—e.g., human rights, gender, institutions engaged in Africa.
Comprises 19 countries from Eastern and Southern Africa, including the Great Lakes. The site provides all the press releases, archives, resolutions and objectives of the organization, and information on all the member states.
Provides extensive resources and links for professionals working for conflict prevention, mitigation and management, humanitarian assistance, conflict resolution, recovery, and post-conflict reconstruction. Includes case studies and resources on various conflict related topics, including environmental issues, child soldiers, civil-military relations, education, food, gender, governance and democracy, health, psychosocial issues, reconstruction and refugees.
Provides links to wide range of IOs and NGOs providing information and services on current conflicts, conflict prevention, refugees, arms control, peace initiatives, country profiles, maps, and other conflict related data listed by country (from the Canadian Development Agency).
Provides an on-line International Directory profiling 475 organizations working in conflict prevention and management worldwide, by country and region. See also below on resources the Platform provides for identifying potential responses, including “Searching for Peace in Africa.”
Comprehensive web gateway for information/links on resources for human rights, governance, conflict resolution, news sources, businesses, health organizations, etc. in Africa.
Reports and policy analysis for Great Lakes and West African regions on issues such as the impact of development aid, light weapons transfers, impact of private military companies, the role of women in peacebuilding, and the role of corporations in conflict situations.
Recommends mechanisms for international or regional interventions based on evaluation of previous initiatives. Case studies on recent conflict management and civil society initiatives in Africa. Offers briefings for UN Security Council and others.
Official website of the OAU (see above).
Listings of political sites by country, with links to parties, organizations, governments, media and more. Useful for accessing information on elections, political situations, composition of governments, and projects by the different organizations.
Official website of SADC, which comprises 14 members from South Africa to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
UNECA engages in advocacy, policy analysis, convening stakeholders for consensus finding, technical cooperation and capacity building for development.
Extensive information on current and previous UN peacekeeping operations.
Annotated regional and country-specific web links by topics including government agencies, international organizations, political resources, peace agreements, media and news sources and maps and guides. “Africa in Depth” page provides special reports on several countries.
Provides country reports on children and armed conflict for all regions of the world, as well as special reports on related issues and relevant international law.
Provides extensive resources and links for private and public sector professionals working for conflict prevention, mitigation and management, humanitarian assistance, conflict resolution, recovery, and post-conflict reconstruction. Includes case studies and resources on various conflict related topics, including environmental issues, child soldiers, civil-military relations, education, food, gender, governance and democracy, health, psychosocial issues, reconstruction and refugees.
Country reports and weekly updates on internally displaced persons (IDPs), and guidelines on how to manage IDPs, facilitate resettlement etc.
Internet based system to provide information on emergency situations in Africa and Central Asia from diverse sources, including daily updates and weekly roundups, special reports, maps, graphics, and policy recommendations.
Basic information about refugees, UN Commission on Human Rights Reports, and links to UNHCR profiles including map- and text-based access to country-specific information. Includes Refugee NewsNet, a searchable archive of UNHCR’s news sources.
The monthly Conflict Trends magazine provides overviews of current conflicts, trends which may give rise to conflicts, and conflict management/development initiatives. Conflict Watch is an on-line condensed statistical overview of major and emerging conflicts in Africa; the Renaissance Barometer focuses on positive developments and achievements in Africa. Also provides training programs and is a good source for identifying conflict management capabilities and appropriate constitutional models for the continent.
Policy relevant information and analysis around African issues and the US role in Africa, including country-specific files on peace and security, and on strategic action topics such as landmines.
Research, analysis and publications on ways to reduce costs and enhance effectiveness in the draw-down of military-related activities. Project areas include reduced military expenditures, reorientation of military R&D, defense industry restructuring, demobilization and reintegration, base closure and redevelopment, and surplus weapons.
Examines the ways in which international organizations (IOs and NGOs) might respond to prevent deadly conflict within and between states, and to develop an international system of nonviolent problem solving. Reviews current preventive capacities of IOs.
Provides a series of 20 case studies on early warning and early response successes and failures, guidelines and methodology for integrating qualitative and model-based early warning data, and links to various conflict management related sites useful for building capacity in conflict prevention.
The CPN is a network of academic institutions, NGOs and independent experts, and it forms part of the European Union Analysis and Evaluation Centre (EUAEC), managed by SWP (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) in Ebenhausen for the European Commission. It aims to provide analytical and operational input to the EU system to facilitate preventive action. Limited Internet access.
See above entry.
Facilitates networking, education, information exchange, and advocacy on conflict prevention drawing on European NGOs. Publications accessible on-line include: “The Conflict Prevention Newspaper,” monitoring global advances in conflict prevention; “People Building Peace” with case studies of conflict management and peace building; “Women Building Peace” and “Searching for Peace in Africa” (1999 overview of conflict prevention and management activities).
See above entry.
Conferences, meetings and practical resource materials aimed at encouraging more effective use of local and international media in support of humanitarian initiatives, development, human rights, peace keeping, emergency relief and the environment.
Catalogue of publications and multi-media materials on the promotion of a culture of peace and nonviolence. IFOR has branches and affiliates in over 40 countries. Current projects include Disarmament and Peacebuilding Program, Nonviolence Education and Training Program, and the Women Peacemakers Program.
Database of model projects or policies aimed at improving the quality of life of groups suffering from poverty or social exclusion, compiled by UNESCO’s “Management of Social Transformations” (MOST) Program. The examples of categories are Indigenous Knowledge, Human Settlements and Poverty Reduction. Also provides access to databases on linguistic and religious rights in multicultural societies.
Books, papers and multimedia series on cutting the arms trade, bring war criminals to justice, promoting peace and upholding the rights of refugees from Oxfam’s “Cut Conflict” campaign.
Lists the details of over 300 organizations and individuals who are active in the fields of peace and conflict research, and produces an informative bi-annual newsletter.
See entry above.
Provides databases on the prevention of trauma and crime in Southern Africa to promote information sharing for conflict prevention.
Details of its current projects aimed at preventing violence and resulting conflict, including in Angola and Burundi. Also offers a toolbox of conflict resolution techniques and multimedia productions.
Online manual on the “Transcend” method for conflict transformation by peaceful means.
Guides the operation of the U.S. diplomatic establishment in the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Reports on projects involving reconciliation and peacebuilding activities among ethnic groups or castes. In Angola, for example, healthcare was used as a tool to build peace. Linkages to several conflict prevention organizations.