Conflict Management throughout the Crisis Life Cycle
Stanley W. Samarasinghe, Tulane University
Intra-state violent conflict
Conflict Model - Crisis Life Cycle
The conflict model shown in the graph uses "level of violence" to define the stage of conflict. The nature of violence in conflict situations can take many forms. However, bloodshed may not take place until conflict reaches a fairly mature stage.
Pre-conflict phase: The pre-conflict phase represents conditions that are normal to the society concerned. At this stage disputes between groups do not result in violence. If the country has democratic institutions such as a freely elected legislature with minority representation and a free media, protest will be channeled peacefully through such institutional channels.
Conflict emergence phase: It is hypothesized that in this phase disputes become more evident, and protesting groups become more vocal and militant. Protest can take many forms including boycotts, strikes, and mass demonstrations. The degree of violence that such protest entails would depend on the specific conditions that prevail in the country. If the country has a democratic tradition less violence can be anticipated. If the political conditions are more authoritarian a higher level of violence can be anticipated. However, in this second phase violence is sporadic and random rather than organized and regular.
Poverty-conflict correlates
 | In the past 15 years about 15 of the 20 poorest countries have experienced violent conflict |
| About half of the world’s low income countries are either engaged in conflict or transiting from conflict |
| Almost every low income country at least share a border with a country in conflict if not embroiled in ones own conflict |
| In the 1990s about 70 million of the world’s poor have been displaced from their homes as a result of conflict In Africa alone about one-third of the countries have produced refugees. |
Early Warning
The purpose of an early warning system is to identify and track indicators of emerging conflict. It should incorporate an assessment of structural variables (long-term conditions) to help do a risk analysis. Second, it must also have an evaluation of perception variables that helps understand why individuals and groups take action against the state, and resort to violence. Third, the early warning model must have monitoring of event variables (triggers, accelerators, and de-accelerators) that provide information on the stage at which a particular country is in the crisis life cycle.
The following are the basic steps to construct an effective EW system:
- Develop an appropriate monitoring framework consisting of a model with variables and indicators
- Risk assessment using historical and contemporary data
- Monitoring and analysis of variables and indicators
- Recommendations for preventive responses
- Integration of recommendations to the response system
An early warning system must be practicable.
Long-term variables/indicators (Illustrative):
Political
Regime type
Democracy
Governance
Military
Social
Equity
Ethnic equity
Utilities and infrastructure
Health services
Education
Demography
Economic
Income
Macro
Environmental:
International
NGO/International intervention
Short and Mid-term Events variables/indicators:
The emergence or escalation of these variables will become apparent prior to the outbreak of violence on a large scale.
Political
Occurrences of anti-government activities
Expansion of the military/police forces
International reactions to the current government
Human, civil, or political rights violations
Communal conflict
Restriction on internal freedom of movement
Social
Lawlessness
Food insecurity
Economic
Drop in growth
Decline in tourist arrivals
Perception variables
Feeling of being discriminated against
Conflict prevention strategy
Pre-conflict phase
Vulnerability reduction
| Political – state building and good governance |
| Economic – conflict reducing development |
Conflict emergence phase
| Low intensity conflict |
| Population vulnerability |
| Preventive diplomacy |
| Early warning (events phase) |
| Warning the international community |
| Donor policy |